Volume 3 Issue 1 | 2026 | View PDF
Paper Id:IJMSM-V3I1P105
doi: 10.71141/30485037/V3I1P105

Environmental and Economic Forecasting of Biomass and Carbon Dynamics under Business-as-Usual, Conservation, and Degradation Scenarios in Mkungunero Game Reserve, Tanzania

Adili Yohana Zella

Citation:
Adili Yohana Zella, "Environmental and Economic Forecasting of Biomass and Carbon Dynamics under Business-as-Usual, Conservation, and Degradation Scenarios in Mkungunero Game Reserve, Tanzania" International Journal of Multidisciplinary on Science and Management, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 38-51, 2026.

Abstract:
The study conducted on the Mkungunero Game Reserve (MKGR) highlighted the significant role of savanna and dryland ecosystems in the global carbon cycle, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. It forecasted biomass, carbon, and CO₂ dynamics from 2020 to 2050 under three land-management scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Conservation (COS), and Degradation (DIS). The study utilized a scenario-based land use/land cover framework, integrating spatial projections with biomass parameters and IPCC-compliant carbon accounting. Findings indicated that under the BAU scenario, MKGR would experience substantial biomass loss of approximately 0.53 million Mg, resulting in net carbon emissions of about 0.30 million Mg C and 0.96 million Mg CO₂e by 2050. The DIS scenario predicted even greater biomass losses exceeding 0.93 million Mg, with cumulative CO₂ emissions nearing 1.60 million Mg CO₂e, positioning the reserve as a significant net carbon source. In contrast, the COS scenario forecasted a net biomass recovery of around 0.16 million Mg, leading to net carbon sequestration of approximately 0.07 million Mg C and 0.27 million Mg CO₂e. Economic evaluations suggested stark differences, with BAU and DIS pathways incurring cumulative losses of about USD 9.6 million and USD 16.0 million, respectively, while the COS pathway could yield a gross gain of USD USD 2.7 million. The study confirms that natural vegetation significantly influences biomass and carbon stocks, and that management practices are crucial for determining carbon outcomes in MKGR. It highlights the need for conservation, effective monitoring, and climate-finance integration to ensure ecological integrity and economic viability in Tanzania's semi-arid savanna reserves.

Keywords: Biomass Depletion, Carbon Emission, Land Use/Cover Change (LULC), Carbon Valuation, Sustainable Game Reserve Management.

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